What this choice actually costs you
The monthly gap is small; the exit gap is not
At today's simulator defaults, $450,000 over 25 years. The fixed at 4.90% costs about $2,592 a month and the variable at 5.30% about $2,710. A $118 monthly gap: real money, but roughly $7,000 over five years if nothing changes.
Now price the exits. Break the variable at any point and the penalty is three months' interest: about $5,960. Break the fixed in year two after rates have dropped 1.5 points, and the Interest Rate Differential penalty on the remaining three years runs near $19,700 on the same balance. The 'cheaper' mortgage just became the expensive one, thirteen years of monthly savings gone in one closing statement.
This is why brokers ask about your five-year life before your rate preference. In Canada — where most people sign five-year terms and most lives don't hold still for five years. The penalty structure is the product.
Trigger rates: how a 'stable' payment quietly stops repaying your house
Canada sells two kinds of variable. The adjustable-rate version (Scotiabank, National Bank) moves your payment whenever prime moves: transparent, occasionally painful. The static-payment version (TD, RBC, CIBC and others) keeps your payment flat and silently rebalances it: rates rise, more of the same payment goes to interest, less to principal, and your amortization stretches.
Push rates far enough and you reach the trigger rate: the point where your flat payment no longer covers even the month's interest. The 2022-23 cycle marched thousands of static-payment borrowers into exactly this wall: banks called, demanding higher payments, lump sums, or conversion to fixed at the worst possible moment.
If you take a static-payment variable, know your trigger rate the day you sign (your lender can quote it), and treat any payment that isn't shortening your amortization as a warning light, not a convenience.
What changed in July 2026: renewals became a real market
For years, uninsured borrowers were half-trapped at renewal: switching lenders meant re-passing the stress test at the higher of contract-plus-2% or the qualifying floor, so many just signed whatever their bank offered. OSFI removed that wall: since July 2026, a straight switch (same balance, same amortization, new lender) requires no new stress test.
The practical effect is leverage. Fixed-rate borrowers whose term ends can now genuinely shop 5-10 lenders; variable borrowers can jump ship without requalifying. Renewal letters from your own bank are opening offers, not verdicts: data from rate comparison sites consistently shows first-offer renewal rates running 0.2-0.5 points above what switching secures.
Two boxes to tick before you switch: the exemption covers straight switches, not refinances (no new money, no re-amortization), and start shopping 120 days out: that is how long most lenders will hold a rate for you.