What this choice actually costs you
The entry ticket: $8,500 working for you versus $6,100
Take Marcus, an engineer on $110,000: squarely in the 37% bracket plus 2% Medicare levy. He wants to invest $10,000 of gross salary a year. Route one: salary sacrifice into super, where a flat 15% contributions tax leaves $8,500 invested. Route two: take it as pay (39% gone: $3,900), leaving $6,100 for his ETF account.
Before either dollar earns a cent of return, super is $2,400 ahead: a guaranteed, government-legislated 39% head start on route two's capital. No fund manager, no stock pick, no market timing produces a surer gain than that entry-tax gap.
The gap scales with your bracket: at 30% it is $1,500 per $10,000; at 45% it is $3,000. This is why the standard advice for retirement money is boring and correct: fill the concessional cap first.
Twenty years later: a $96,000 gap from the same salary
Run Marcus's $10,000 a year for 20 years at 7% gross returns. Inside super, $8,500 lands annually and compounds at roughly 5.95% after the fund's 15% earnings tax: about $311,000 by year 20. Outside, $6,100 lands annually and compounds at roughly 5.5% after tax on distributions (helped by the CGT discount): about $213,000.
Same salary, same market, same risk: a $96,000 difference, produced almost entirely by tax structure. And this understates super's edge slightly, because franking credits refund harder against a 15% fund rate than against Marcus's 39%.
The honest counterweight: every dollar of that $311,000 is behind a wall until Marcus turns 60. The $213,000 is his tomorrow morning. That is not a footnote: it is the entire second half of the decision, and it is why the answer is an allocation, not a winner.
When the ETF route wins anyway, and the hybrid the caps allow
The lock is not a small print item. Need a house deposit at 34? Super says no, with one exception: the First Home Super Saver Scheme lets you withdraw up to $50,000 of voluntary contributions (max $15,000 counted per year) plus deemed earnings, keeping most of the tax advantage. For first-home savers, FHSS inside super usually beats saving in ETFs outside it.
Want to retire at 52? The years from 52 to 60 must be funded entirely from outside super: that bridge is an ETF job, and it needs to be built alongside, not instead of, super. Emergency fund? Outside, always.
The 2026-27 caps define the hybrid: employer SG of 12% plus your salary sacrifice up to $32,500 concessional in total, with unused cap from the past five years claimable while your balance is under $500,000: a powerful catch-up lever after a pay rise or career break. Past the cap, non-concessional contributions ($120,000/yr) or ETFs outside super carry the rest. Order of operations, not either/or.